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[衣食住行] 德国:欧洲的新明星正在走向繁荣

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發表於 2010-9-4 19:43:19 | 顯示全部樓層 |閱讀模式
德国:欧洲的新明星正在走向繁荣2010年09月04日14:19腾讯财经




腾讯财经讯 9月4日(GMT+8:00),MarketWatch刊登题为《德国:欧洲的新明星正在走向繁荣》评论文章,全文摘要如下:


德国发布了惊人的增长数字,其非凡的出口数据正成为世界经济增长的动力,同时德国拥有非常好的品牌质量。德国6月份失业率为7.3%,比美国失业率低2个百分点,与加拿大持平。


这一切都在证明,德国正从全球经济衰退和金融市场崩溃中强劲复苏。


德国的出口实力将使其常年处于优势地位。二季度,德国GDP增长2.2%,而美国这一数字为1.6%,英国仅为1.1%。德国出色的经济表现应归功于其竞争优势、有效的政府经济计划和世界经济的复苏。


德国一季度GDP下跌3.5%后,政府迅速采取行动,向银行提供4800亿欧元救助,向陷入困境的公司提供1150亿欧元,并用800亿欧元刺激国内经济。


有两项计划特别成功:「旧车换现金」计划推动了汽车销售,并帮助了国内零部件供应商。而鼓励企业减少工时但不裁员的方案,允许公司在销售大幅下滑时减少员工工时,并由政府提供一定补贴,其目的在于避免裁员,保留员工直至经济结束衰退。


实施该方案,政府每年只需支付60亿欧元,却使150万工人得以减少工时以保住工作并继续消费,且为公司在经济复苏时迅速恢复生产做好准备。而与此同时,美国经济失去了700万个就业机会,许多工人深陷长期失业困境。


更为重要的是,蓬勃发展的亚洲经济是德国工业产品的天然市场。2010年上半年,德国对亚洲出口增长超50%。


但这种新的「德国奇迹」可能是一种暂时现象,欧元区危机也可能还没有结束。


德国经历了多年的工资停滞,其消费者相当节俭——这点与美国完全相反。德国人口正在迅速老龄化,而德国的社会保障系统运行成本非常高。


德国的工业设计是一流的,但该国没有产生像美国 苹果Google 这样的超级人气公司。最后,德国的税率非常高,平均高达45%。


本文作者Howard R. Gold,MoneyShow.com执行编辑。





 樓主| 發表於 2010-9-4 19:45:33 | 顯示全部樓層

marketwatch.com 原文

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/germany-europes-new-superstar-2010-09-04?reflink=MW_news_stmp



Sept. 4, 2010, 12:01 a.m. EDT · Recommend · Post:

Europe's new superstarCommentary: Germany is on a path of prosperity


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By Howard Gold

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Mention Old Europe and you'll probably think of small, cobblestone streets, old buildings, wonderful museums -- and stagnant economies.

In fact, "becoming like Europe" is for many Americans the worst possible thing that could happen to our country.

But at least one European nation has been posting astonishing growth numbers, easily outdistancing our own. Its top-notch exports have been booming, especially in China, the world's dynamo, where its brands are highly desired.


Asia's Week Ahead: Bank of Japan addresses the yen

The Bank of Japan is set to take center stage in the coming week as it looks at revised GDP and machinery orders in order to determine how to address the rising yen. MarketWatch's Chris Oliver reports.


And its unemployment rate, at 7.3% in June, is more than two full percentage points below ours and about in line with that of Canada, our prosperous neighbor to the north.

That country, of course, is Germany, which has bounced back strongly from the global recession and financial market meltdown.

Although problems with its banking system linger -- as does the threat of another round of the euro zone's crisis -- Germany's prowess as an export-oriented manufacturer will leave it in a strong competitive position for years, even as its economic performance becomes more "normal."

Carsten Brzeski, an economist with ING in Brussels, told the U.K.'s Daily Mail that Germany's economy was in a "league of its own."

German GDP grew at 2.2% in the second quarter. In the U.S., that figure was recently revised downward to 1.6%, about halfway between that of Germany and the U.K.'s 1.1%.

So, why is Germany doing so well? A focus on its competitive strengths, a government stimulus program that worked, and the world economy's big bounce back from the abyss.

Because as good as the second quarter of 2010 was, that was how bad its first quarter of 2009 was. Germany's GDP plunged 3.5% then, as the world seemed on the verge of another Great Depression.

But the German government swung into action. Germany's bold plan included a 480 billion euro bailout of German banks, 115 billion euros for troubled companies, and 80 billion euros worth of domestic stimulus.

There were plenty of "bridges to nowhere" in it -- millions of euros going to crazy projects like stud farms and a museum of hunting weapons. But two things worked well: Germany's own "cash for clunkers" plan, which boosted auto sales and helped domestic parts suppliers; and a particularly effective program that encouraged companies to reduce workers' hours, but not lay them off.

The basis for the "short-time" working system, "has existed in German social legislation for decades," wrote Der Spiegel.

"When companies experience sharp declines in sales, they are permitted to reduce their employees' working hours, and the government offsets a portion of the costs. The goal is to avoid layoffs and retain employees until the recession is over."

The program was wildly successful: It allowed 1.5 million workers to keep their jobs at reduced hours -- and continue to spend money -- while keeping in place the workforce that would allow companies to gear up quickly once the economy bounced back.


Asia's Week Ahead: Bank of Japan addresses the yenThe Bank of Japan is set to take center stage in the coming week as it looks at revised GDP and machinery orders in order to determine how to address the rising yen. MarketWatch's Chris Oliver reports.
That's exactly what has happened, and it cost the government an estimated 6 billion euro a year, less than $10 billion.Meanwhile, the U.S. economy lost seven million jobs, and many former workers are mired in the ranks of the long-term unemployed.But what has really done the trick for Germany has been the revival of China in the wake of that country's stimulus package.The booming Chinese economy is a natural market for German industrial products. German exports to China rose 55% in the first half of 2010.On our recent trip to China, we saw Audis and BMWs all over the clogged highways of China's major cities. There were plenty of Mercedes, too. Those three luxury marques have seen sales in China balloon by anywhere from 60% to 130% this year. Read MoneyShow's "Seeing China's Next Challenge Up Close."Watch a slideshow about China.Meanwhile, the heart of the German economy, the so-called "Mittelstand" -- small and midsized companies that employ most of the country's workforce, are planning "to create up to 100,000 jobs by the end of the year."German manufacturers' combination of engineering excellence, impeccable quality, and technical innovation enables them to command a premium price around the world. (The weaker euro, because of the recent crisis over Greece and other southern European countries, hasn't hurt their competitiveness, either.)That has enabled Germany to be one of the few countries -- China and Japan are others -- with a trade surplus: Germany's hit $75 billion in the first half. And total government debt should level off at 80% of GDP over the next few years.Still, the government of Chancellor Angela Merkel has taken the austerity route, tightening spending sharply in an 80-billion euro plan aimed at bringing the annual deficit down close to zero. We will find out whether that ultimately cements or undermines the recovery.This new "German miracle" may be illusory. The country's "landesbanks" -- regional banks -- are in big trouble, and may need more assistance. And of course, the eurozone's crisis may not be over."What could go wrong is some more concerns in the euro zone," says Heiko Böhmer, editor of Privatfinanz-Letter, a daily e-mail service based in Cologne. "We are strong, but the countries around us are struggling."Since a lot of Germany's exports go to the Old Continent, that could be a big problem. That's one reason Boehmer says "the second half will be a little bit harder for the German economy."Also, Germany has suffered wage stagnation for years, and its consumers are almost too frugal -- the opposite problem of what we've had in America. Germany's population is aging rapidly, too, yet the country has an expensive social safety net, including national health insurance. Somebody will have to pay for it.And though German engineering is second to none, the country's conservative culture doesn't encourage the wonderfully creative technological innovation -- the Apples([size=0.92em]AAPL [size=0.92em]258.77, [size=0.92em]+6.60
, [size=0.92em]+2.62%), the Googles ([size=0.92em]GOOG [size=0.92em]470.30, [size=0.92em]+7.12, [size=0.92em]+1.54%), the Pixars -- that America does so well. Also, the country has a very high tax rate -- it averages 45% -- and ranks 23rd in the Heritage Foundation's 2010 Index of Economic Freedom. (The U.S. ranked eighth.)Plus, although the DAX index has outperformed the Standard & Poor's 500 index([size=0.92em]SPX [size=0.92em]1,105, [size=0.92em]+14.41, [size=0.92em]+1.32%) since the March 2009 lows, German stocks rose only 3% annually from 1900 through 2009, badly lagging the US's 6.2% yearly gain and world champion Australia's 7.5% annual advance, according to Credit Suisse. Read MoneyShow's "The World's Best Stock Market."But stock market performance isn't everything -- and marginal tax rates aren't always the critical success factor, either. If Germany can continue on its current path of prosperity, a lot of people who used to put it down as a hopeless welfare state -- the "sick man of Europe" -- may have to take another look.Howard R. Gold is executive editor of MoneyShow.com . The views expressed here are his own.
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 樓主| 發表於 2010-9-4 19:51:40 | 顯示全部樓層

篇文作者狗up当秘笈,对德国一无所知。

居然够胆死话德国「保守」?!

德国有Bauhaus设计先锋,柏林系欧洲电气爵士音乐都会。美国有无?无!

德国有RapidShare.com,德国有eMule,3DMark/PCMark系德国人开发既,德国仲有好多家类似Elsa显卡 咁既变态发烧级硬件生产厂家。美国有无?无!

大家市场针对唔同啫!你地美国佬赚大众愚民钱,人地德国赚发烧精英钱!
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