Jim Chanos认为中国的房地产泡沫前所未见，迟早破灭。目前中国有300亿平方英尺的在建商业地产，已经出现了明显的由流动性（
贵价楼卖唔出 温州佬惊住蚀到渣都无得剩 晨早开始放盘）引发的房地产泡沫，这个泡沫将会破灭。如果泡沫破灭，将会伤及建筑材料、大宗原材料，如铁矿石等。他的依据是中国靠固定资产投资（
猛咁起楼）推动GDP的效率已经越来越低。
Jim Chanos: China's Real Estate Bubble Is Unprecedented
Associate Web Producer, CNBC.comThe bubble in China's real estate is unprecedented and companies exporting for the country's construction sector should be watched carefully, James Chanos, president and founder of Kynikos Associates, told CNBC Monday.
"We are not calling for an impending crash of Shenzhen or of the Shanghai stock market, but in particular the bubble that has been blown up in real estate both commercial and residential as well as other forms of fixed asset investment in china is unprecedented," Chanos said.
"I do see all of the signs of a credit induced real estate bubble that i think is going to be a doozy," he added.
He said there are about 30 billion square feet of space in construction only in the commercial property sector.
If the bubble were to burst, it would hurt the building materials sectors and the commodity plays in the Western world, the sectors where demand depends on the Chinese construction market, according to Chanos.
"Looking at companies, I'd be very leery of companies who are exporting materials to China to build up this construction bubble," he added.
Fixed investment is forecast to reach 60 percent of Chinese gross domestic product this year, up from around 50 percent, he said.
After World War II, the Soviet Union, Germany and Japan grew very rapidly using fixed investment, but only Germany managed to use inputs more efficiently until nowadays, Chanos explained.
"In China, what we've seen is more and more fixed investment is needed for a dollar of GDP so they're getting less efficient, not more," he said.
A Chinese government researched said Monday that the country's GDP was likely to grow about 9.5 percent in 2010, largely due to strong domestic consumption and corporate investment.
"In China GDP is quite a bit of a different thing, very similar to the good old Soviet Union." Chanos said.
發表於 2010-2-1 00:20:48
