http://www.nationmultimedia.com/2009/08/31/opinion/opinion_30111034.php
Conflict flare up in Triangle
By DON PATHAN
The Nation
Published on August 31, 2009
SOMETHING
IS BREWING in the Burmese corner of the Golden Triangle and it's more
than just the chemicals boiling in the clandestine heroin and
methamphetamine labs.
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Bluffing
between the military government and one of the cease-fire groups - the
Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), also known as the
Chinese Kokang - turned into an armed clash last Thursday. Tens of
thousands of residents were sent fleeing to China's Yunnan province,
Thai and Chinese officials monitoring the border situation said.
With
the help of Burmese government troops, Kokang's stronghold Laogai has
now come under a splinter group led by the MNDAA's second in command,
Bai Souqian, who broke away with about 200 troops, who accounted for 20
per cent of the outfit's total troop strength.
"It's a
classical divide-and-conquer tactic. This is not the first time that
the Burmese junta has done this," said a senior Thai Army officer on
the border who spoke on condition of anonymity.
In
response, MNDAA chairman Peng Jiasheng has dispatched a small outfit to
carry out hit-and-run attacks against a Burmese outpost near the Kokang
capital of Laogai and pockets manned by Burmese government troops.
Peng
has also reportedly secured the support of other cease-fire groups,
namely the 20,000-strong United Wa State Army (UWSA), Shan State
Army-North and Mong La-based National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA),
an outfit headed by his son-in-law Lin Mingxian, also known as U Sai
Leun. Incidentally, the NDAA, on June 30, celebrated its 20th
anniversary of "peace" with the Burmese.
Both Thai and
Chinese sources downplayed the so-called military pact between the
Kokang and other ethnic armies. Personal connections and common
political and security interests aside, mobilising troops to take on
the Burmese soldiers is easier said than done.
"It's all about logistics," said the senior Thai Army officer.
"The
Burmese have all the holes plugged to prevent any major movement of
troops along the border," added a senior officer from Thailand's'
Narcotics Control Board.
In spite of the disturbing nature
of the development, Chinese officials along the border area say it
would not be in the interest of any stakeholder to let the situation
escalate out of hand into an all-out war.
Behind-the-scenes
diplomatic efforts are being taken to minimise the damage before the
situation spirals out of control, the Chinese officer said.
But even if the shooting stops, where all sides go from
here is anybody's guess. It is undeniable that the two-decades-old
cease-fire agreements that were orchestrated by then security chief Lt
General Khin Nyunt in 1989 have been effectively shattered.
But
for observers of the Golden Triangle, the real aim of this latest
development is not to smash the Kokang's hold on Laogai but to send a
brutal message to the 20,000-strong UWSA whose members are made up of
some very interesting characters. The Wa rank-in-file include opium
warlords and head-hunters turned militia. Chinese Red Guards who first
entered the areas three decades ago to preach Marxism later discovered
that opium was as good as gold, thus the moniker Golden Triangle.
They,
too, joined forces with the Wa to seek fortune and glory. Prior to the
1989 cease-fire, Wa foot soldiers formed the largest block within the
Communist Party of Burma. And when the CPB broke up in 1989 along
ethnic lines, Khin Nyunt quickly neutralised the CPB remnants with a
series of cease-fire agreements.
The end of the CPB
didn't mean the end of cross-border personal and political ties,
however. It means a proxy army has just changed its uniform.
Ever
since Khin Nyunt was ousted in October 2004, the UWSA leadership, as
well as other cease-fire groups, have felt that their days were
numbered. Almost five years later, their worst fear came true. Their
two-decades-old cease-fire has effectively crumbled.
"Picking
on the much smaller Kokang reflects the old Thai saying of 'slit the
chicken's throat to scare the monkeys'," said a Thai intelligence
officer. The monkeys in this case are of course the Wa.
The
Burmese junta will continue with its divide-and-conquer tactic, said
the Thai Army officer, pointing to the SPDC's relentless drive to split
the UWSA. They succeeded in bringing down the Karen National Union in
1994.
The UWSA's geographical foothold in the Golden
Triangle resembles that of a dumbbell - with the northern stronghold on
the Chinese border, while three regiments are situated near the Thai
border. Boa Yuxiang and his brothers control the north while Wei
Hsueh-kang and his brothers dominate the south.
The two
families can't stand each other but there is an understanding that
divided they fall. But that traditional acknowledgement is about to
end, said a Chinese official, pointing to the recent mobilising of
troops from Wei's Military Region 171 to head to the northern region.
According
to the Chinese officer, Wei wants to break away from the UWSA and
dispatching troops to Bao's turf is a way of testing the waters. So why
can't Wei just announce the breakaway from a distance?
According
to Thai and Chinese officials, Wei has been under tremendous pressure
from the SPDC to press the UWSA to transform their outfit into a border
security guard under the control of the government's army, known as the
Tatmadaw. One leverage the SPDC can bring to bear on Wei is that much
of his money is invested in Burma while Bao does his banking and money
laundering in China.
Since the 1989 cease-fire, Burmese
troops were not permitted to enter the territories under the control of
these ethnic armies unescorted. In most cases, they had to be disarmed.
Last week's clash was a rude indication that things are
about to change. In real terms, this could mean hundreds of thousands
of villagers running for their lives to China. Thailand is watching the
development closely in case the UWSA's three regiments along its border
are drawn into the fight.
For Thailand, it would mean more
refugees to look after. For China, it could very well mean the
annihilation of an old friendship, namely with the UWSA, whose bonds
with the Chinese leadership go all the way back to the days of the
communist insurgency.
Loyalty dies hard in the rugged
Golden Triangle where warlords play for keeps. Some said friendship
between the Chinese leaders and their proxies are forever. Apparently,
the Burmese junta is saying it's time to part.
| 
發表於 2009-8-31 04:19:49
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